After more
than a year since the news first surfaced, Canadian smartphone laggard
BlackBerry came into the spotlight once again last week as the company
announced it was forming a special committee to review the always-ominous
"strategic alternatives." And while it's abundantly clear that
BlackBerry desperately needs a tech sugar daddy, what's less obvious is who
would want to snap up shares of the struggling smartphone maker.
While the
company does have some valuable assets, there's also that whole declining
smartphone business, which makes the overall value much less attractive.
Just a few
months ago, BlackBerry seemed dedicated to going alone. Now, the company is
surprisingly blunt about its willingness to consider a joint venture or selling
the company. Why now? Well, the crucially important “value” model Q5 launched
about six weeks ago in the UK and Africa, markets that used to be BlackBerry’s
cornerstones just two years ago. The Q5 gained sudden importance after the
high-end Q10 and Z10 phones put in disappointingly weak volume performances
during the May quarter, driving BlackBerry’s U.S. market share down to just
1.1% according to one estimate.
The problem
with the Q5 is that it is priced well above $400 (about N65,000). That is the
dead zone of the current smartphone market where the $600-plus (about N96,000)
niche belongs to Apple and Samsung and value buyers are migrating towards
sub-$200 (about N33,000) phones. Funny enough, Windows keep garnering strength
in this region with the ubiquitous advantage Nokia brings into the equation.
BlackBerry
received early sales numbers from the Q5 by the end of July from its most
important Western base in the UK and the key emerging markets like South Africa
and Nigeria. It is quite likely that these early Q5 figures were so scary they
pushed BlackBerry into the radical decision of publicly announcing it may need
a buyer.
There is no
sign of BlackBerry being close to launching a true budget device; the upcoming
BlackBerry Z30 looks like high-priced white elephant and no other BlackBerry 10
phones are expected to launch this year.
So in August
2013, BlackBerry finds itself with a product portfolio of two luxury models and
one expensive mid-market model — and with an imminent launch of a high-priced
phablet. This is the moment when BlackBerry’s board of directors has finally
realized the current pricing approach has placed the company on the road to
ruin.
The problem is
that even if somebody opts to buy BlackBerry, it would take until the end of
2014 to really implement a substantial product course correction. The good news
is that the company has billions of loonies in cash and it will take a long
time to burn through to the hoard. There is still time. There are fascinating
potential combos out there: DellBerry, LenovoBerry, SonyBerry. All of them
would combine two fading consumer electronics lines, but it’s true that the
oddball Sony Ericsson melange came very close to actually succeeding in mid-nineties.
Enter Warren
Buffet! This investment tycoon from Canada is emerging as one of the leading
bidders for BlackBerry, as analysts point to the likelihood of a private equity
buyout for the beleaguered smartphone maker. Prem Watsa, the boss of
Toronto-based Fairfax Financial Holdings, resigned from BlackBerry's board on
Monday, just seven months after joining, and is now expected to try to
orchestrate the company's stockmarket exit.
Having spent
an estimated $880m (£570m) buying nearly 10% of BlackBerry's shares at an
average price of $17, the 61-year-old is the company's largest shareholder and
he is sitting on a potential $270m loss.
But the
Indian-born chemical engineer has made his fortune from championing apparently
lost causes, having left his home for Canada with $8 to his name. Fairfax was
one of a small group of institutions that bought a 35% stake in Bank of Ireland
from the Irish government during the height of the eurozone crisis, and has
earned a positive return on its investment. Now Watsa is betting on a Greek
recovery, declaring recently that "a bottom has been reached" in the
decline of the European Union's most troubled economy.
He was an
early skeptic on the US property market, predicting the sub-prime housing
collapse years before it happened, and used the proceeds of that bet to invest
in the shares well before their recent rebound.
Watsa's
investment strategy means his firm's stockmarket value of $8.3bn is now greater
than BlackBerry's, which has crashed from a pre-credit crunch height of $55bn
to $6bn today.
Industry
watchers think a sale to another handset maker or Technology Company is
unlikely. Despite the company's determination to reinvent itself under chief
executive Thorsten Heins, observers say a trade bid would have emerged by now
if rivals were truly interested in the wake of the sidelining of founder Mike
Lazaridis and his business partner Jim Balsillie 18 months ago.
Watsa's move
is therefore being seen as the first tangible sign of a financial solution to
BlackBerry's woes. "We believe Fairfax along with other Canadian pension
funds and banks are considering taking BlackBerry private," said Peter
Misek, an analyst at Jefferies bank.